ロボティクスにも「苦い教訓」がやってくる

原文アブストラクト

General purpose multimodal language models (LMs) are increasingly capable of directly controlling robotic arms (e.g., by commanding end effector poses) to manipulate their environment. Tracking the development of these capabilities is important for understanding their potential benefits, such as improving industrial automation, and risks, such as enabling malicious users to produce dangerous chemical or biological agents. To this end, we investigate the ability of frontier multimodal LMs to directly control physical robotic arms. We evaluate seven models at multiple reasoning-effort settings on six manipulation tasks taken from the RoboDojo benchmark. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic comparison of a broad range of frontier LMs across a common suite of manipulation tasks on physical hardware. We find that current frontier models can directly control real robotic arms to perform a variety of manipulation tasks but are not yet precise or efficient enough to complete them within a practical action budget. However, these capabilities are improving rapidly: performance increases on our benchmark between July and September 2026 (inclusive) correspond to a performance doubling time of 44.5 days, while the best recorded execution rate increased by a factor of 4.4 and the lowest recorded execution cost fell by a factor of 6.2. These trends raise the possibility that the Bitter Lesson is coming to robotics; the capabilities of embodied general purpose LMs may one day be comparable to those of more specialized models.