McKinsey: General-Purpose Robot Market to Reach About $370 Billion by 2040, Offering Japanese Companies a $111 Billion Opportunity

McKinsey & Company, led in Japan by Naoyuki Iwatani, published its latest insight, “How General-Purpose Robots Are Opening a $100 Billion Market for Japan,” on August 13, 2026. The report projects that the general-purpose robot market will grow from less than $1 billion in 2025 to about $370 billion by 2040, and says Japanese companies have an opportunity to capture 30% of the global market, or about $111 billion. Meanwhile, Japan’s manufacturing robot density fell from No. 1 globally in 2009 to No. 5 in 2024, and its share of global industrial robot production declined from 54% in 2015 to 29% in 2024.

Japan’s robotics industry is at a turning point where its traditional hardware advantage may no longer be enough. McKinsey’s analysis uses market-size and market-share figures to show the urgency of the shift and the need for companies to change strategy. For readers, it is an important indicator of how the competitiveness of Japanese manufacturing is being redefined in AI and data.

McKinsey’s analysis is significant because it quantifies the structural shift facing Japan’s robotics industry. It projects that the general-purpose robot market will expand from less than $1 billion in 2025 to about $370 billion by 2040, growing at an annual rate of about 70%. That contrasts with annual growth of about 3% for conventional robots and indicates that general-purpose robots will become the clear center of growth. The estimated $111 billion opportunity for Japanese companies is based on the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s target of capturing 30% of the global market. Given the current downward trend in market share — from 54% to 29% of industrial robot production — achieving that target will require a shift beyond business as usual. The report’s “Japan paradox” is noteworthy. Japan still has high technical capabilities, but no Japanese company is among the top 10 humanoid robot suppliers, and the country is losing ground to China and the United States in patent applications. McKinsey attributes this to an inability to “deploy advanced technology profitably, quickly and at scale.” This suggests that Japan’s strengths in precision engineering and mechatronics do not directly translate into an advantage in a new competition where AI, data and software are sources of competitiveness. The three strategic shifts proposed in the report involve a restructuring of the value chain. First, moving from “selling products” to “operating systems that continue to learn” means that the key to competitive advantage is not the performance of a robot alone, but building a “data flywheel” that feeds real-world operational data back into learning. This entails a business-model shift from hardware sales to recurring service revenue, such as RaaS and predictive maintenance. Second, shifting from “supplying components” to “providing modules and platforms” creates opportunities in integrated offerings such as smart joints and “Safety in a Box,” as individual components such as gears, motors and sensors become commoditized. Third, the shift to being “global from day one” calls for companies to design around global markets in their products, standards, pricing and supply chains, given shrinking domestic demand. These shifts will put pressure on Japanese component suppliers and OEMs to substantially change traditional business relationships. In particular, as components become commoditized, companies will need capabilities in software integration and data use — areas where Japan’s manufacturing strengths may be less effective. The report says Japanese companies may be able to apply their strengths in fields where quality, safety and reliability are important, including nursing care, health care, inspection and disaster prevention. It also points to the importance of establishing rules for real-world deployment, including regulations, safety standards, responsibility, privacy and cybersecurity. Among the unresolved questions is whether the roughly $111 billion opportunity can actually be captured; that will depend on the speed of building a data flywheel and expanding globally, and the report does not provide a detailed road map. The report also discusses potential paths to success for China’s “hardware-first” approach, the United States’ “AI-centered” approach and Japan’s “coordination-oriented” approach, but a detailed comparative analysis remains a task for the future.

McKinsey projects that the general-purpose robot market, which was worth less than $1 billion in 2025, will expand to about $370 billion by 2040. It says the total global market, including conventional robots, could reach about $450 billion. The conventional industrial robot market is expected to grow at an annual rate of about 3% through 2040, while the general-purpose robot market is projected to grow at about 70% annually. The robotics market, worth about $14 billion in 2015, expanded to about $28 billion in 2024. By 2040, the report forecasts a market of about $80 billion for conventional robots and about $370 billion for general-purpose robots. Japan’s robot density in 2024 was 446 units per 10,000 employees, compared with 1,220 in South Korea, 818 in Singapore, 567 in China and 449 in Germany. The report says the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has set a target for Japanese companies to capture 30% of the global market, or about $111 billion, by 2040. It identifies three strategic shifts for Japanese companies: (1) from “selling products” to “operating systems that continue to learn”; (2) from “supplying components” to “providing modules and platforms”; and (3) from “establishing a business in Japan before expanding overseas” to being “global from day one.” It says component suppliers have opportunities to move from individual parts to smart joints, subsystems that package safety, and action stacks that integrate perception and control. For OEMs, it recommends expanding revenue models to include integrated software platforms, over-the-air updates, fleet management, predictive maintenance and RaaS (Robotics as a Service).

Japan has fallen from first to fifth globally in robot density, and its share of industrial robot production has declined from 54% to 29%. McKinsey says the key is whether Japan can translate its strengths in precision engineering and mechatronics into AI, data and software. It sees opportunities for component suppliers to shift from individual parts to integrated offerings such as smart joints and “Safety in a Box,” signaling structural change for Japan’s component industry.