J.P. Morgan Forecasts U.S. Humanoid Production Will Reach Up to 400,000 Units in 2030

Reuters reported on November 12, 2026, that J.P. Morgan said U.S. humanoid production could reach as many as 400,000 units in 2030. A supplemental article carrying Reuters’ report gave a 2030 forecast range of 300,000 to 400,000 units and a 2035 forecast of about 1.5 million. These are production forecasts, not actual output.

J.P. Morgan’s forecast estimates U.S. humanoid production at 300,000 to 400,000 units in 2030 and about 1.5 million in 2035, providing a market benchmark for manufacturers and component suppliers comparing production plans. However, the materials provided do not specify the time frame for the production figures or the company plans underlying them, so they should not be read as actual output or annual capacity.

The figures of 300,000 to 400,000 units in 2030 and about 1.5 million in 2035 are J.P. Morgan forecasts for U.S. humanoid production. They do not represent current production or the number of robots already deployed. The main source’s headline gives the upper end of the 2030 forecast, 400,000 units, while the supplemental account of Reuters’ report gives a range. The figures should be understood as forecasts, not actual results, and production should be distinguished from deployed or operating units. The materials refer to “production” but do not specify whether the figures for 2030 and 2035 are annual production capacity or cumulative totals. This distinction affects comparisons with factory scale and component supply capacity, so clarifying the definition is essential to assessing the forecast. According to the reproduced Reuters report, many U.S. manufacturers other than Tesla are targeting annual production of 10,000 to 30,000 units. Those targets cannot be compared directly with the 2030 forecast; it is also unclear whether the company targets and the marketwide forecast use the same time frame and aggregation method. In related coverage, Physical AI News reported on August 20, 2026, that Chinese companies drew attention at the World Robot Conference in Chinese Companies Draw Attention at the World Robot Conference. On June 23, 2026, it also covered the introduction of a bipartisan bill seeking to ban imports of Chinese-made robots in U.S. Lawmakers Introduce Bipartisan Bill Seeking to Ban Imports of Chinese-Made Robots. The production forecast can be viewed in the context of discussions about domestic U.S. production alongside policy debates over imports. However, the materials do not establish a direct causal link between the forecast and the bill. Assessing whether the production forecast will translate into actual output requires tracking not only the definition of the unit figures but also manufacturers’ facility plans, actual utilization rates, component supply and the range of models being produced. The reproduced Reuters report cites hardware, AI training data, computing resources and production capacity as constraints on deployment. The materials provided do not show how far these constraints will be eased or which companies’ plans underpin the forecast. For now, the figures are best treated as J.P. Morgan’s market outlook, not as evidence of large-scale production.